Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
